A top federal prosecutor in Minnesota announced that suspected Medicaid fraud in several state‑run programs could reach $9 billion or more, a figure drawn from an audit of 14 programs the U.S. Attorney’s Office has labeled “high‑risk.” Prosecutors say those programs collectively billed roughly $18 billion in federal Medicaid funds since 2018, and that based on early data and billing patterns, a significant portion — possibly half or more — may represent fraudulent claims rather than legitimate services. Federal officials have described the scale as “industrial‑scale fraud,” suggesting that phantom companies and sham claims have siphoned off public funds meant for vulnerable recipients.

Prosecutors have already filed dozens of indictments tied to schemes involving overbilling, fake providers, and claims filed for services never delivered. For example, recent charges involve defendants accused of exploiting housing and autism service programs, allegedly diverting money toward luxury travel and personal use. Prosecutors also described cases of out‑of‑state “fraud tourism” where individuals registered companies in Minnesota purely to submit fake Medicaid claims.

Minnesota’s governor, Tim Walz, and state health officials have pushed back on the federal estimate, calling it “sensationalized” and saying the state does not currently have evidence to support that magnitude of fraud. Walz acknowledged fraud exists and pledged to strengthen oversight, but he questioned the public release of preliminary figures without concrete substantiating evidence. State Medicaid leaders noted that while they see concerning billing patterns in some programs, they have only confirmed fraud in the tens of millions of dollars so far, not billions. State officials have also emphasized that they are actively working to suspend payments where fraud is suspected and referring cases to law enforcement. They have requested that federal prosecutors share detailed evidence so the state can more aggressively halt fraudulent payments.

The federal investigation spans 14 Medicaid‑related programs that the state administers — including services such as housing stabilization, disability support, and autism treatment billing. Many of these programs have seen explosive cost growth in recent years, raising red flags for investigators. In some cases, payouts grew from millions to hundreds of millions of dollars in just a few years, which federal agents took as evidence of systemic vulnerabilities to abuse.

Some cases involve entities that allegedly billed Medicaid without providing any services, with funds diverted for personal luxury — such as international travel and expensive goods — rather than the programs’ intended purposes. Prosecutors have already charged multiple individuals and are expanding investigations into additional schemes.

Federal prosecutors’ claims do not exist in a vacuum — Minnesota has previously been the site of large fraud cases affecting public programs. One well‑known case, the Feeding Our Future scandal, saw hundreds of millions in federal nutrition funds diverted through fraudulent nonprofit operations. Investigators also uncovered extensive billing abuse in Medicaid autism services and other safety‑net benefits.

Nationally, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates that improper payments — including fraud, waste, and error — in federal benefit programs may total hundreds of billions of dollars annually, indicating that vulnerabilities in program integrity are a widespread concern beyond Minnesota.

The dispute over how much money has been stolen has become politically charged. The fraud allegations have been amplified in political discourse, with national figures citing Minnesota’s Medicaid issues as evidence of poor oversight and leadership. Governor Walz, a Democrat, has countered that framing, asserting the need for shared responsibility and collaboration rather than politicized estimates.

At the same time, federal and state agencies are under pressure to improve oversight and accountability mechanisms. Minnesota’s Department of Human Services says it has increased fraud detection efforts and suspended term payments where credible allegations exist. However, the federal assertions highlight ongoing inconsistencies between state and federal perspectives on the scale of the problem.

The unfolding investigation underscores the vulnerability of complex government programs like Medicaid to exploitation when rapid growth and insufficient verification systems are involved. The ongoing inquiry has broader implications for program integrity, taxpayer trust, and federal‑state relationships in administering safety‑net benefits.

As investigators continue to audit claims, pursue charges, and refine estimates of total losses, Minnesota officials face pressure to tighten oversight, recover misused funds, and prevent future abuse. The final scope of fraud will depend on continued audits, evidence sharing between federal and state authorities, and possible legal outcomes for defendants. Meanwhile, policymakers nationally are watching the case as a potential model for identifying and preventing large‑scale fraud in safety‑net programs

BREAKING: First Assistant U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson revealed that 14 state Medicaid programs have cost Minnesota $18 billion since 2018, including more than $3.5 billion in 2024 alone.

Thompson stated, "Now, I'm sure everyone is wondering how much of this $18 billion was… pic.twitter.com/hCNDBuCTYH

— FOX 9 (@FOX9) December 18, 2025