California Governor Gavin Newsom has emerged as an early frontrunner in the 2028 Democratic presidential race, according to a Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted in early September. He leads the Democratic field with 21% support among registered Democrats. Close behind are Vice President Kamala Harris with 19%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 12%, and Pete Buttigieg at 10%. Analysts believe it is crucial for Republicans to evaluate Newsom’s political profile as the race begins to take shape.

Despite his lead in primary polling, Newsom struggles with national approval ratings. A separate Cygnal survey found him with a net approval rating of -5 among likely voters. The biggest challenges appear among non-college voters, a key demographic in swing states, where Newsom trails by 21 points. This is a wider gap than other recent Democratic candidates have faced, indicating potential problems for his general election viability.

Swing voters are another concern. Newsom currently trails by 12 points among this group, with only 29% approving of his performance. Independents — the largest and growing political segment at 43% — remain skeptical. While Kamala Harris narrowly won independents in 2024, Newsom’s lower favorability poses risks in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Newsom also faces a gender gap, particularly with college-educated men. In 2024, this group narrowly favored Harris over Trump, but currently disapproves of Newsom by a 3-point margin. Among highly active voters, those who voted in the last four major elections, his approval rating is also slightly negative, reflecting continued doubts from politically engaged Americans.

Black Democrats who attend religious services regularly present another challenge. A notable portion, 16%, view Newsom unfavorably. This could impact early primaries in states like South Carolina, where religious Black voters are a critical bloc.

With three years until the next election, much could change. However, early polling highlights key vulnerabilities in Newsom’s campaign. His success may hinge on improving appeal among non-college voters, swing voters, and key demographic groups outside the liberal strongholds.