For nearly 30 years, New Jersey has been a Democratic stronghold, but new signs suggest a shift.
An Emerson poll shows Donald Trump with a 47% approval rating in the state, ahead of Democratic Governor Phil Murphy at 40%. Former Vice President Kamala Harris only narrowly won New Jersey in 2024, with Trump flipping several traditionally blue counties.
Analyst Jason Corley notes working-class and Hispanic voters are turning away from Democratic cultural priorities in favor of Republican messages focused on inflation, crime, and immigration. Since 2020, Republicans have added 152,000 voters—a 9.8% increase.
Rising taxes and living costs appear to be fueling the change, potentially making independents pivotal in future elections.
