CNN data analyst Harry Enten issued a warning about Democrats’ prospects in the 2026 midterm elections, saying the party is “way behind” compared to where it stood at the same point in the 2006 and 2018 cycles. Currently, Democrats hold just a 2-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot—far short of the 7-point advantage they had before their wave victories in those years.

Enten noted that Republicans also have more opportunities to gain seats in the midterms than Democrats. “When it comes seat by seat, Republicans actually have more net pickup opportunities,” he said. He cautioned those prematurely declaring the Republican House’s demise: “Republicans are still very much in the game.”

This warning aligns with recent polling by Trump’s 2024 pollster, Tony Fabrizio, whose firm found Republicans trailing Democrats by three points on a generic ballot in evenly split districts. Democrats must net just three House seats to break GOP control, a difficult task given that many 2026 Senate races are in Republican-leaning states, limiting Democrats’ chances to reclaim the Senate.

On policy, the GOP backs recent legislation delivering tax cuts, increased immigration enforcement funding, and stricter social safety net rules. Democrats argue the law restricts health insurance access, raises costs for the middle class, favors the wealthy, and undermines green energy and workers’ rights.

However, evidence shows most lost health coverage affects illegal immigrants, costs have not risen for middle-class Americans, and the bill permanently maintains 2017 tax cuts benefiting over 88% of Americans.

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